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Global economic outlook - The Economist
Worst of all, lipstick sales are up.
The economy is now rebounding strongly after its recent downturn, reckons the OECD. America is expected to have one of the fastest growth rates among rich countries this year. Its GDP is forecast to grow by just over 4% in 2004, more than twice that expected for the European Union and Japan.
The risk of deflation seems to have receded in America and Europe, where the OECD now expects that consumer prices will rise by between 1-2% this year and next. Japan, however, will still have to struggle with falling prices in the absence of a stronger response by its central bank. By 2005, unemployment is expected to be just under 8% in Europe, compared with around 5% in both Japan and America. The OECD thinks that America's current-account deficit, now around 5% of GDP, will continue to grow and remain one of the biggest risks for global economic stability.
And worst of all, lipstick sales are up! It is a well known indicator that during economic crises, lipstick sales (and cosmetic sales overall) do well and often rise. This was first noted in 1929-32 and again in 2008 cosmetic sales held up well. This would seem to be due to women deciding they need to cheer themselves up and perhaps make themselves more attractive for their menfolk. This is a pleasing thought. Alas the consumption of cheap alcohol also rises during crises, consumed mostly by men. Sadly the men may be more often too drunk to notice how pretty their womenfolk look.
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